Research on the stability of mine workings and the risk of rock caving at the Zhaysan deposit, Kazakhstan
Merey Balpanova1,2, Gylym Sapinov3, Arailym Rymkulova1, Adilkozha Ospanov1,Sveta Imanbayeva1, Stanislav Tyan4
1Abylkas Saginov Karaganda Technical University, Karaganda, Kazakhstan
2Scientific and Technical Center for Industrial Safety LLP, Karaganda, Kazakhstan
3Autonomous Organization of Education “Nazarbayev University”, Astana, Kazakhstan
4GEO ENGINEERING Limited Liability Partnership, Karaganda, Kazakhstan
Min. miner. depos. 2025, 19(3):106-119
https://doi.org/10.33271/mining19.03.106
Full text (PDF)
      ABSTRACT
      Purpose. This research aims to predict the stability of mine workings and assess the risk of rockbursts in conditions of insufficient knowledge of the mechanical rock properties at the Zhaysan deposit (Kazakhstan), while taking into account the depth of the rock mass occurrence and quality, as well as the orientation of the mine workings relative to the tectonic stress field.
      Methods. The research employs a set of methods: laboratory testing of granitoid and diabase samples, assessment of rock mass disturbance using the Rock Quality Designation (RQD) index, analysis of metasomatically altered rocks, as well as the construction of a simplified 3D geomechanical model using the kriging method. The rock mass strength was predicted using the Hoek-Brown criterion, while the risk of rockbursts was assessed using the Fragility Index (UCS/UTS) and the Canadian method for assessing rockburst potential. The stability of mine workings in different directions was determined by the indicator of weighted frequency of rockfalls and analysis of their ratio with respect to orientation relative to σ1.
      Findings. It has been found that with increasing depth, the average RQD values increase from 60 to 90%, reflecting a decrease in fracturing and an improvement in rock mass quality. However, in fresh granitoids, there remains a high risk of elastic energy accumulation and its release during destruction. The critical depth at which rockburst risk begins has been determined to be approximately 400 m. The rocks altered metasomatically are characterized by reduced strength and fragility, which reduces their susceptibility to bursts, but increases the probability of caving. It has been revealed that the stability of the mine workings depends on their orientation: minimal damage is fixed when coinciding with the direction σ1 (azimuth ~300°), and the critical is the angle of intersection 45°, after which the volumes of rockfalls increase sharply.
      Originality. For the first time for the Zhaysan deposit, laboratory tests, geomechanical parameters (RQD, GSI), analytical strength criteria and analysis of the orientation of mine workings relative to the tectonic stress field were integrated to determine the depth boundary of rockburst hazard occurrence. The necessity of distinguishing between fresh and metasomatically altered granitoids is demonstrated when assessing risks and taking into account the direction of mine workings in project solutions.
      Practical implications. The results make it possible to identify high danger zones and depths, starting from which an enhanced monitoring of the stress state of the rock mass and the application of special safety measures are required. The proposed approach can be tailored for similar solid mineral deposits with limited source data, as well as can be used when selecting a safe direction for mine workings in the tectonic stress field.
      Keywords: geomechanics, RQD, rockbursts, stability of mine workings, Zhaysan deposit, tectonic stresses
      REFERENCES
- Li, S., Wang, L., Ren, Q., Zhu, C., Liu, H., Liu, H., & Chen, L. (2022). A study on the influence of mining depth on the stress distribution characteristics of stope surrounding rock. Geofluids, 1, 4178554. https://doi.org/10.1155/2022/4178554
- Wu, H., Wang, X., Yu, W., Wang, W., Zhang, Z., & Peng, G. (2020). Analysis of influence law of burial depth on surrounding rock deformation of roadway. Advances in Civil Engineering, 1, 8870800. https://doi.org/10.1155/2020/8870800
- Zhang, C., Ye, D., Yang, P., Wu, S., & Wang, C. (2020). Study on impact tendency of coal and rock mass based on different stress paths. Advances in Civil Engineering, 1, 8883537. https://doi.org/10.1155/2020/8883537
- Cheng, L., Zhang, Y., Ji, M., Cui, M., Zhang, K., & Zhang, M. (2015). Theoretical calculation and analysis on the composite rock‐bolt bearing structure in burst‐prone ground. Mathematical Problems in Engineering, 1, 434567. https://doi.org/10.1155/2015/434567
- Kang, H. (2014). Support technologies for deep and complex roadways in underground coal mines: a review. International Journal of Coal Science & Technology, 1(3), 261-277. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40789-014-0043-0
- Xu, Z., Ye, G., Li, Y., Zhang, C., & Liu, Q. (2024). Pressure-relief joints of initial support structural system used in soft rock tunnels under high ground stress. PLoS ONE, 19(4), e0297668. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0297668
- Bazaluk, O., Petlovanyi, M., Zubko, S., Lozynskyi, V., & Sai, K. (2021). Instability assessment of hanging wall rocks during underground mining of iron ores. Minerals, 11(8), 858. https://doi.org/10.3390/min11080858
- Ghazdali, O., Moustadraf, J., Tagma, T., Alabjah, B., & Amraoui, F. (2021). Study and evaluation of the stability of underground mining method used in shallow-dip vein deposits hosted in poor quality rock. Mining of Mineral Deposits, 15(3), 31-38. https://doi.org/10.33271/mining15.03.031
- Khomenko, O.Ye., Sudakov, A.K., Malanchuk, Z.R., & Malanchuk, Ye.Z. (2017). Principles of rock pressure energy usage during underground mining of deposits. Naukovyi Visnyk Natsionalnoho Hirnychoho Universytetu, 2, 34-43.
- Kalybekov, T., Rysbekov, K.B., Toktarov, A.A., & Otarbaev, O.M. (2019). Underground mine planning with regard to preparedness of mineral reserves. Mining Informational and Analytical Bulletin, 5, 34-43.
- Bondarenko, V., Kovalevska, I., Symanovych, H., Barabash, M., & Snihur, V. (2018). Assessment of parting rock weak zones under the joint and downward mining of coal seams. E3S Web of Conferences, 66, 03001. https://doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/20186603001
- Aben, E.Kh., Malanchuk, Z.R., Fedotenko, V.S., & Orynbaev, B.A. (2023). Improving efficiency of rock breaking using pre-weakening of rock mass. Eurasian Mining, 40(2), 62-65. https://doi.org/10.17580/em.2023.02.13
- Orinbaev, B., Ratov, B., Khomenko, V., Tileuberdi, N., Khayitov, O., Umirzokov, A., Seidaliyev, A., Makyzhanova, A., Kuttybayev, A., Zahrytsenko, A., & Kamyshatskyi, O. (2025). Comprehensive use of electrical inverse lateral and radioactive logging for strata properties investigation in cased wells. ES Materials and Manufacturing, 27, 1417. https://doi.org/10.30919/mm1417
- Sun, L., Hu, N., Ye, Y., Tan, W., Wu, M., Wang, X., & Huang, Z. (2022). Ensemble stacking rockburst prediction model based on Yeo-Johnson, K-means SMOTE, and optimal rockburst feature dimension determination. Scientific Reports, 12(1), 15352. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-19669-5
- Wang, H., Li, Z., Song, D., He, X., Sobolev, A., & Khan, M. (2021). An intelligent rockburst prediction model based on scorecard methodology. Minerals, 11(11), 1294. https://doi.org/10.3390/min11111294
- Zhu, Q., Zhao, X., & Westman, E. (2021). Review of the evolution of mining‐induced stress and the failure characteristics of surrounding rock based on microseismic tomography. Shock and Vibration, 1, 2154857. https://doi.org/10.1155/2021/2154857
- Qin, S., Zhao, X., Yu, W., Song, J., & Wu, T. (2024). Experimental study on the mechanical properties of deep granite under gradient-confining pressure. Applied Sciences, 14(11), 4598. https://doi.org/10.3390/app14114598
- Zholmagambetov, N., Khalikova, E., Demin, V., Balabas, A., Abdrashev, R., & Suiintayeva, S. (2023). Ensuring a safe geomechanical state of the rock mass surrounding the mine workings in the Karaganda coal basin, Kazakhstan. Mining of Mineral Deposits, 17(1), 74-83. https://doi.org/10.33271/mining17.01.074
- Abdiev, A.R., Mambetova, R.S., & Mambetov, S.A. (2017). Geomechanical assessment of Tyan-Shan’s mountains structures for efficient mining and mine construction. Gornyi Zhurnal, 4, 23-28. https://doi.org/10.17580/gzh.2017.04.04
- Rojas Perez, C., Wei, W., Gilvesy, A., Borysenko, F.J., & Mitri, H.S. (2024). Rockburst assessment and control: A case study of a deep sill pillar recovery. Deep Mining 2024: Proceedings of the 10th International Conference on Deep and High Stress Mining, 659-672. https://doi.org/10.36487/ACG_repo/2465_40
- Cortés, N., Hekmatnejad, A., Pan, P., Mohtarami, E., Pena, A., Taheri, A., & González, C. (2024). Empirical approaches for rock burst prediction: A comprehensive review and application to the new level of El Teniente Mine, Chile. Heliyon, 10(5), e26515. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e26515
- Nurtay, Z., Baizbaev, M., Shontaev, A., & Usenkulova, S. (2022). Otsenka vliyaniya fizicheskih faktorov na okruzhayuschuyu sredu pri otrabotke mestorozhdeniya Zhaysan. Prioritetnyie Napravleniya Razvitiya Sovremennogo Obrazovaniya, Nauki i Tehnologiy, 90-93.
- Kontar, E.S. (2015). Mestorozhdeniya medi v geologicheskoy istorii Zemli. Regionalnaya Geologiya i Metallogeniya, 61, 77-91.
- Heidbach, O., Barth, A., Müller, B., Reinecker, J., Stephansson, O., Tingay, M., & Zang, A. (2016). WSM quality ranking scheme, database description and analysis guidelines for stress indicator. World Stress Map Technical Report, 1601.
- Kayal, J. (2008). Dynamics of faulting and fault plane solution. Microearthquake Seismology and Seismotectonics of South Asia, 152-179. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4020-8180-4_4
- Röckel, L., Ahlers, S., Müller, B., Reiter, K., Heidbach, O., Henk, A., Hergert, T., & Schilling, F. (2022). The analysis of slip tendency of major tectonic faults in Germany. Solid Earth, 13, 1087-1105. https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-26
- Carrión-Mero, P., Aguilar-Aguilar, M., Morante-Carballo, F., Domínguez-Cuesta, M.J., Sánchez-Padilla, C., Sánchez-Zambrano, A., Briones-Bitar, J., Blanco-Torrens, R., Córdova-Rizo, J., & Berrezueta, E. (2021). Surface and underground geomechanical characterization of an area affected by instability phenomena in Zaruma mining zone (Ecuador). Sustainability, 13(6), 3272. https://doi.org/10.3390/su13063272
- Shaiyakhmet, T.K., Baibatsha, A.B., & Fedotenko, N.A. (2024). Geomechanical assessment of mineral deposits based on 3D modeling. Eurasian Mining, 1, 28-32. https://doi.org/10.17580/em.2024.01.07
- Madani, N., & Asghari, O. (2018). Spatial mapping of the rock quality designation using multi-Gaussian kriging approach. Minerals, 8(11), 530. https://doi.org/10.3390/min8110530
- Narimani, S. (2025). Analyzing drill core logging using rock quality designation (RQD) and implications for rock mass classification. Applied Sciences, 15(3), 1309. https://doi.org/10.3390/app15031309
- Dong, X., Yang, T., Gao, Y., Liu, F., Zhang, Z., Niu, P., Liu, Y., & Zhao, Y. (2025). Characterization of spatial variability in rock mass mechanical parameters for slope stability assessment: A comprehensive case study. Applied Sciences, 15(15), 8609. https://doi.org/10.3390/app15158609
- Wei, S., Li, Y., Shang, Y., Sun, Y., & Li, K. (2022). Stability analysis of fractured rock mass around underground excavations based on a three-dimensional discrete fracture network. Environmental Earth Sciences, 81, 65. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-021-10145-3
- Mining plan for the development of Zhomart deposit. (2020). Astana, Kazakhstan: Kazakhmys Corporation LLP Head Design Institute.
- Takhanov, D., Zhienbayev, A., & Zharaspaev, M. (2024). Determining the parameters for the overlying stratum caving zones during repeated mining of pillars. Mining of Mineral Deposits, 18(2), 93-103. https://doi.org/10.33271/mining18.02.093
- Zhienbayev, A., Balpanova, M., Asanova, Zh., Zharaspaev, M., Nurkasyn, R., & Zhakupov, B. (2023). Analysis of the roof span stability in terms of room-and-pillar system of ore deposit mining. Mining of Mineral Deposits, 17(1), 129-137. https://doi.org/10.33271/mining17.01.129
- Esmailzadeh, A., Behnam, S., Mikaeil, R., Naghadehi, M.Z., & Saei, S. (2017). Relationship between texture and uniaxial compressive strength of rocks. Civil Engineering Journal, 3(7), 480-486. https://doi.org/10.28991/cej-2017-00000106
- Ahrami, O., Koupaei, H.J., & Ahangari, K. (2024). Determination of deformation modulus and characterization of anisotropic behavior of blocky rock masses. Mining Science and Technology, 9(2), 116-133. https://doi.org/10.17073/2500-0632-2023-08-143
- Kulbayev, B., Lapin, V., Shakhnovich, A., Shokbarov, Y., Tuleyev, T., Aldakhov, S., Aldakhov, Y., & Ali, A. (2024). Strength and deformability of structural steel for use in construction. Civil Engineering Journal, 10, 796-807. https://doi.org/10.28991/CEJ-2024-010-03-09
- Barton, N. (2002). Some new Q-value correlations to assist in site characterisation and tunnel design. International Journal of Rock Mechanics and Mining Sciences, 39(2), 185-216. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1365-1609(02)00011-4
- Lin, F., Luan, H., Zeng, Y., & Zhong, Z. (2017). Some new correlations of Q-value with rock mechanics parameters in underground oil storage caverns. Civil Engineering Journal, 3(8), 537-546. https://doi.org/10.28991/cej-2017-00000111
- Hoek, E., & Brown, E.T. (2019). The Hoek-Brown failure criterion and GSI – 2018 edition. Journal of Rock Mechanics and Geotechnical Engineering, 11, 445-463. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jrmge.2018.08.001
- Liu, Zh., Guo, Y., Du, Sh., Wu, G., & Pan, M. (2017). Research on calibrating rock mechanical parameters with a statistical method. PLoS ONE, 12(5), e0176215. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0176215
- Miao, S.J., Cai, M.F., Guo, Q.F., & Huang, Z.J. (2016). Rock burst prediction based on in-situ stress and energy accumulation theory. International Journal of Rock Mechanics and Mining Sciences, 83, 86-94. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijrmms.2016.01.001
- Mark, C. (2018). Coal bursts that occur during development: A rock mechanics enigma. International Journal of Mining Science and Technology, 28(1), 35-42. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijmst.2017.11.014
- Lajtai, E.Z. (1971). A theoretical and experimental evaluation of the Griffith theory of brittle fracture. Tectonophysics, 11(2), 129-156. https://doi.org/10.1016/0040-1951(71)90044-5
- Alessi, R., & Ulloa, J. (2023). Endowing Griffith’s fracture theory with the ability to describe fatigue cracks. Engineering Fracture Mechanics, 281, 109048. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.engfracmech.2023.109048
- Cai, M., & Kaiser, P.K. (2018). Rockburst support reference book – Volume I: Rockburst phenomenon and support characteristics. Sudbury, Canada: MIRARCO – Mining Innovation, Laurentian University, 284 p.
- Rules for ensuring industrial safety for hazardous production facilities engaged in mining and geological exploration. (2014). Order of the Minister of Investment and Development of the Republic of Kazakhstan dated December 30, 2014, No. 352.
- Kirsch, G. (1898). Die theorie der Elastizität und die Bedürfnisse der Festigkeitslehre. Zeitschrift des Vereins Deutscher Ingenieure, 29, 797-807.
- Rezini, D., Khaldi, A., & Rahmani, Y. (2015). On the boundary value Kirsch’s problem. Journal of Mechanics, 32(1), 1-10. https://doi.org/10.1017/jmech.2015.93