Models and methods to make decisions while mining production scheduling

A. Khorolskyi¹, V. Hrinov¹, O. Mamaikin², Yu. Demchenko²

¹Institute for Physics of Mining Processes of the National Academy Sciences of Ukraine, Dnipro, Ukraine

²Dnipro University of Technology, Dnipro, Ukraine

Min. miner. depos. 2019, 13(4):53-62

https://doi.org/10.33271/mining13.04.053

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ABSTRACT

Purpose is to develop a new approach to the design of mining operations basing upon models and methods of decision making.

Methods. The paper has applied a complex approach involving approaches of decision-making theory. Analysis of the pro-duction development scenarios is proposed for strategic activity planning; criteria to make decisions under the uncertainty conditions as well as decision-making trees for day-to-day management are proposed to determine balanced production level.

Findings. It has been identified that mining production design is of the determined character demonstrating changes in “state of the nature” depending upon the made decisions. The idea of mining production is to reduce uncertainty gradually by means of analysis of production scenarios, and elimination of unfavourable alternatives. Operative management is implemented while constructing decision trees, and optimizing operation parameters. Representation of sets of rational equipment types as well as development scenarios, and their comparison in terms of decision-making parameters makes it possible to determine adequate capacity of a working area, and to reduce expenditures connected with the equipment purchase and maintenance. In this context, limiting factors, effecting anticipatory mining out-put, are taken into consideration. Successive comparison of the alternatives helps identify decision-making area for different scenarios of the production development.

Originality.To manage mining production, approaches of decision-making theory have been proposed which involve the use of decision trees, decision-making criteria, and analysis of scenarios basing upon representation of operating procedures in the form of a network model within which the shortest route corresponds to optimum decision.

Practical implications. Decision-making system has been developed making it possible to optimize operation parameters, to reduce prime cost of mining, and to select a structure of engineering connections with the specified production level. The described approaches may be applied at the stage of a stope design as well as in the process of a field development. Specific attention has been paid to a software development to implement the approaches.

Keywords: production, optimization, efficiency, software, criterion

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